Research prototype weather pattern forecasts for India

00 UTC GEFS-IMD medium-range run on Mon 14 Aug 2023
Forecasts valid at 12:00 UTC / 17:30 IST

Weather pattern forecast probabilities

Ensemble members are objectively assigned to their closest matching weather pattern definition, using a set of 30 predefined weather patterns. The assignment is achieved by finding the ensemble member and weather pattern pairing with the smallest area-weighted sum of squared differences between their corresponding u- and v-component winds at 850-hPa – this metric is commonly referred to as "distance". Forecast probabilities (as shown in the table below) are then based on the total number of ensemble members assigned to each weather pattern. Click on the "Pattern" links in the first column to view weather pattern definition wind fields at 850-hPa as well as their rainfall climatologies. Click on the "Historical frequency occurrences" links in the last three columns to view a full breakdown for all months in the year. Table cells are colour-coded according to their probability to assist with identifying the most likely weather pattern transitions.

 
 Mon 
 14 
 Aug 
 Tue 
 15 
 Aug 
 Wed 
 16 
 Aug 
 Thu 
 17 
 Aug 
 Fri 
 18 
 Aug 
 Sat 
 19 
 Aug 
 Sun 
 20 
 Aug 
 Mon 
 21 
 Aug 
 Tue 
 22 
 Aug 
 Wed 
 23 
 Aug 
 Pattern Category Historical frequency
occurrences
(July)		 Historical frequency
occurrences
(August)		 Historical frequency
occurrences
(September)
Pattern 1 Retreating Monsoon 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pattern 2 Summer Dry Period 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pattern 3 Summer Dry Period 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pattern 4 29% 5% 33% 5% Break Monsoon 14.1% 13.0% 2.9%
Pattern 5 Western Disturbances 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Pattern 6 Retreating Monsoon 0.0% 0.0% 1.0%
Pattern 7 Summer Dry Period 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Pattern 8 Summer Dry Period 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pattern 9 Summer Dry Period 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pattern 10 5% 24% 48% 24% 24% 43% 33% Break Monsoon 12.3% 10.9% 1.0%
Pattern 11 24% 10% 14% 14% Break Monsoon 19.7% 14.4% 2.9%
Pattern 12 Pre/Post-Monsoon 0.0% 0.2% 1.2%
Pattern 13 Post-Monsoon 1.1% 3.0% 16.3%
Pattern 14 100% 100% 95% 33% 10% 5% 5% 10% 48% Break Monsoon 2.6% 9.3% 12.8%
Pattern 15 Pre/Post-Monsoon 0.0% 0.2% 9.1%
Pattern 16 Summer Dry Period 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pattern 17 48% 57% 33% 5% Active Monsoon 10.3% 11.8% 7.1%
Pattern 18 Active Bay of Bengal 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%
Pattern 19 Active Monsoon 18.4% 13.0% 0.5%
Pattern 20 Summer Dry Period 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pattern 21 14% 5% Active Monsoon 13.4% 14.1% 2.9%
Pattern 22 48% 33% Pre/Post-Monsoon 0.5% 1.2% 4.6%
Pattern 23 Western Disturbances 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Pattern 24 Western Disturbances 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Pattern 25 Retreating Monsoon 0.0% 0.0% 3.0%
Pattern 26 Monsoon Onset 6.9% 3.8% 1.4%
Pattern 27 Western Disturbances 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Pattern 28 5% 10% 5% Retreating Monsoon 0.6% 4.8% 21.2%
Pattern 29 Retreating Monsoon 0.0% 0.2% 5.7%
Pattern 30 Retreating Monsoon 0.0% 0.2% 5.0%

Cumulative probabilities for each weather pattern category

Probabilities are aggregated for weather patterns with the same descriptions in the table above. For example, probabilities for all weather patterns described as "active monsoon" will be aggregated. This helps identify transitions in the large-scale circulation and is especially useful when there is a lot of ensemble spread across the set of 30 weather patterns.

 
 Mon 
 14 
 Aug 
 Tue 
 15 
 Aug 
 Wed 
 16 
 Aug 
 Thu 
 17 
 Aug 
 Fri 
 18 
 Aug 
 Sat 
 19 
 Aug 
 Sun 
 20 
 Aug 
 Mon 
 21 
 Aug 
 Tue 
 22 
 Aug 
 Wed 
 23 
 Aug 
Pre/Post-Monsoon 48% 33%
Active Monsoon 62% 62% 33% 5%
Western Disturbances
Summer Dry Period
Monsoon Onset
Post-Monsoon
Break Monsoon 52% 100% 100% 100% 62% 90% 33% 38% 67% 95%
Active Bay of Bengal
Retreating Monsoon 5% 10% 5%

Circulation trend indicator tables

Weather patterns have been classified according to their dominant circulation characteristics during four broad seasons: (1) summer monsoon, (2) summer to retreating monsoon, (3) winter dry period and (4) pre-monsoon to monsoon onset. Circulation trends are shown in the four tables below for both the latest and most recent forecasts with daily validity times aligned. This allows for a rapid assessment of forecast consistency over consecutive model runs. In addition, these tables are useful for identifying key transitions in the large-scale circulation.

1. Summer monsoon circulation trend

Please note: This table is intended for use between June and September for identifying active and break phases of the summer monsoon.

 
Mon
14
Aug
Tue
15
Aug
Wed
16
Aug
Thu
17
Aug
Fri
18
Aug
Sat
19
Aug
Sun
20
Aug
Mon
21
Aug
Tue
22
Aug
Wed
23
Aug
Latest model run (14/00 UTC) 52% 100% 100% 95% 71% 81% 62% 62% 57% --
Previous model run (run -1) 76% 86% 95% 100% 90% 52% 71% 57% 67% 76%
Previous model run (run -2) 95% 57% 95% 95% 71% 81% 81% 81% 86%  
Previous model run (run -3) 62% 52% 95% 90% 76% 71% 86% 86% 86%  
Previous model run (run -4)                    
Previous model run (run -5) 81% 62% 100% 100% 90% 76% -- 67%    
Previous model run (run -6) 100% 57% 95% 90% 57% 81% 95%      
Previous model run (run -7) 95% 52% 90% 95% 76% 67% 67%      
Previous model run (run -8) 100% 52% 52% 81% 90% 86%        
Previous model run (run -9) 100% 95% 52% 76% 52% 71%        

            
 Weather patterns typically associated with break monsoon tendencies over India are most likely 
 Weather patterns 4, 10 and 11 (break)
            
 Weather patterns typically associated with no active or break monsoon tendencies over India are most likely 
 Weather patterns not listed above and below
            
 Weather patterns typically associated with active monsoon tendencies over India are most likely 
 Weather patterns 17, 19 and 21 (active)

2. Summer to retreating monsoon circulation trend

Please note: This table is intended for use between August and November for identifying the start of the retreating monsoon.

 
Mon
14
Aug
Tue
15
Aug
Wed
16
Aug
Thu
17
Aug
Fri
18
Aug
Sat
19
Aug
Sun
20
Aug
Mon
21
Aug
Tue
22
Aug
Wed
23
Aug
Latest model run (14/00 UTC) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 95% 100% 100% 100%
Previous model run (run -1) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 86% 76% 57% 100% 100%
Previous model run (run -2) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 90% 95% 100% 100%  
Previous model run (run -3) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 76% 86% 95% 90%  
Previous model run (run -4)                    
Previous model run (run -5) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 86% 95% 100%    
Previous model run (run -6) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%      
Previous model run (run -7) 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 90% 100%      
Previous model run (run -8) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%        
Previous model run (run -9) 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 100%        

            
 Weather patterns typically associated with summer monsoon tendencies over India are most likely 
 Weather patterns 12, 13, 15, 15 and 22 (pre/post summer monsoon); 26 (onset); 17, 19 and 21 (active); 4, 10 and 11 (break) 
            
 Weather patterns typically associated with no summer or retreating monsoon tendencies over India are most likely 
 Weather patterns not listed above and below
            
 Weather patterns typically associated with retreating monsoon tendencies over India are most likely 
 Weather patterns 1, 6, 18, 25, 28, 29 and 30 (retreating)

3. Winter circulation trend

Please note: This table is intended for use between December and May for identifying periods most susceptible to western disturbances during the winter dry period.

 
Mon
14
Aug
Tue
15
Aug
Wed
16
Aug
Thu
17
Aug
Fri
18
Aug
Sat
19
Aug
Sun
20
Aug
Mon
21
Aug
Tue
22
Aug
Wed
23
Aug
Latest model run (14/00 UTC) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Previous model run (run -1) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Previous model run (run -2) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%  
Previous model run (run -3) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%  
Previous model run (run -4)                    
Previous model run (run -5) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%    
Previous model run (run -6) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%      
Previous model run (run -7) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%      
Previous model run (run -8) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%        
Previous model run (run -9) 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%        

            
 Weather patterns typically associated with contrywide dry period tendencies over India are most likely 
 Weather patterns 2, 3, 7, 8, 9, 16 and 20 (countrywide winter dry period)
            
 Weather patterns typically associated with no dry period or western disturbance tendencies over India are most likely 
 Weather patterns not listed above and below
            
 Weather patterns typically associated with western disturbance tendencies over India are most likely 
 Weather patterns 5, 23, 24 and 27 (western disturbances)

4. Spring to summer monsoon circulation trend

Please note: This table is intended for use between May and July for identifying monsoon onset.

 
Mon
14
Aug
Tue
15
Aug
Wed
16
Aug
Thu
17
Aug
Fri
18
Aug
Sat
19
Aug
Sun
20
Aug
Mon
21
Aug
Tue
22
Aug
Wed
23
Aug
Latest model run (14/00 UTC) 52% 100% 100% 95% 67% 81% 90% 95% 90% 52%
Previous model run (run -1) 76% 86% 95% 100% 90% 48% 76% 57% 76% 81%
Previous model run (run -2) 95% 57% 95% 95% 67% 86% 95% 95% 100%  
Previous model run (run -3) 62% 52% 95% 90% 76% 48% 86% 90% 86%  
Previous model run (run -4)                    
Previous model run (run -5) 81% 62% 100% 100% 86% 62% 52% 71%    
Previous model run (run -6) 100% 57% 95% 90% 57% 90% 100%      
Previous model run (run -7) 95% 52% 90% 95% 67% 81% 95%      
Previous model run (run -8) 100% 52% 52% 81% 100% 100%        
Previous model run (run -9) 100% 95% 52% 76% 52% 81%        

            
 Weather patterns typically associated with pre-monsoon tendencies over India are most likely 
 Weather patterns 12, 13, 14, 15 and 22 (pre-monsoon)
            
 Weather patterns typically associated with no pre- or summer monsoon tendencies over India are most likely 
 Weather patterns not listed above and below
            
 Weather patterns typically associated with summer monsoon tendencies over India are most likely 
 Weather patterns 26 (onset); 17, 19 and 21 (active); 4, 10 and 11 (break)

Weather regime stacked probabilities

Weather pattern probabilities are aggregated according to their common regime group and presented as stacked probabilities. Regime bars are colour-coded based on their dominant circulation characteristics. Here, orange indicates winter types, light blue indicates pre- and post-monsoon / monsoon onset types, dark blue indicates the main summer monsoon types (active / break) and green indicates the retreating monsoon type. Hatching is used to distinguish between sub-types within a given colour. The regime ordering always remains the same to allow for an easy comparison with forecasts from previous runs and from different models. These plots complement the circulation trend indicator tables by enabling a quick assessment of any large-scale circulation changes and can be compared with previous runs to interpret forecast consistency. Regime descriptions in the plot are for guidance only; please refer to the top-level weather pattern forecasts for more detail.

Forecast confidence index

The forecast confidence index plot allows for an objective assessment of ensemble spread across the set of 30 weather patterns, by comparing the forecast confidence index from the latest run to that from a number of historical runs (as defined in the plot title). A score of 0 means that all members are equally distributed across all weather patterns, whereas a score of 1 means that all members are assigned to the same weather pattern. Green shading highlights days where ensemble spread is less than normal and red shading highlights days where ensemble spread is more than normal. Note that the forecast confidence index is not a measure of forecast skill.

Underlying forecast data (CSV files)

CSV files are available for download which provide the underlying data used in the generation of these forecasts. This includes the weather pattern assignments for each ensemble member and the distances (as a grid-point average area-weighted sum of squared differences) between each ensemble member and its closest matching weather pattern definition, using u- and v-component winds at 850-hPa between both fields. CSV files contain one row for each forecast day. The first column gives the forecast validity date and time in the format YYYYMMDDHH. The following columns then give the values (pattern assignments or distances) for each ensemble member, with the control member values given first followed in order by all other members.

Ensemble member pattern assignments
(CSV file)

Ensemble member pattern distances
(CSV file)

Page created at 17:07:10 (India local time) on Mon 14 Aug 2023

Data provided by the India Meteorological Department, MoES, GoI  Colloboration with Met Office  Under WCSSP Project


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